House and Senate Race Roundup
by brownsox
Thu Aug 21, 2008 at 02:04:37 PM PDT
OH-11: First and foremost, we note again with sadness the passing of the late Representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio, the chairwoman of the House Ethics Committee.
The Congresswoman was a true trailblazer whose career represented a series of firsts - she was the first African-American woman elected to Congress from the state of Ohio, the first ever to sit on the Ways and Means committee, the first to serve as Cuyahoga County Prosecutor.
Our deepest condolences and best wishes go to her family and friends.
National: Courtesy of Jonathan Godfrey and Marisa McNee comes the latest web resource for following U.S. House races online: House Race Tracker.
The site serves as a resource for polling results, cash-on-hand numbers, TV ads, and PVI. Soon, apparently, they hope to expand to including independent expenditures in House races as well.
Perhaps the most noteworthy aspect of the site is its layout; the entire content of HouseRaceTracker is laid out on the front page in user-friendly chart form.
While there's no real commentary on the site as of now, HouseRaceTracker looks to be a nice one-stop shop for elections junkies. It's well worth visiting, and bookmarking, for anyone interested in House races.
NC-Sen: Now, for the exciting polling news! InsiderAdvantage has polled the North Carolina Senate race, and finds Caribou Liddy Dole deadlocked with Democratic challenger Kay Hagan:
Hagan (D) 40
Dole (R) 40
Lot of undecideds in this poll. Here are the most promising indicators: Hagan leads 38% to 27% among independents, and takes a slightly larger share of Republicans than Dole does of Democrats (despite the high percentage of conservative Democrats in North Carolina).
The DSCC and Majority Action have been absolutely hammering Caribou Liddy on the airwaves for the past month or so (including in the DSCC's "Rocking Chairs" ad, one of the very best ads from anyone this cycle).
Meanwhile, Hagan has put up two positive ads to spread her own name recognition.
Pollster's average now shows Dole at 49%, Hagan at 41%, but the last two polls on the race have shown very good movement in Hagan's direction. It appears the race is starting to trend her way.
AK-Sen: Ted Stevens' bid to get home-field advantage in his federal corruption trial failed miserably, with a federal judge ruling against Stevens' bid to get his trial moved from DC to Alaska.
The upshot of this is that Stevens will also not be able to campaign this fall, a rather unfortunate bit of news as he currently trails Democrat Mark Begich by double digits.
He's also begging his colleagues on the Ethics Committee to permit him to set up a legal defense fund:
WASHINGTON -- Sen. Ted Stevens has asked the U.S. Senate Ethics Committee to approve a legal expense fund to help pay the cost of his criminal defense.
Stevens, R-Alaska, joins Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska, who set up such a fund earlier this year to help defray the cost of mounting legal expenses connected to a federal probe into campaign donations and other matters.
The Senate Ethics Committee must approve the legal expense fund, but generally does so for senators if the legal expenses are connected to their role as an officeholder. Stevens was indicted last month on seven felony counts of failing to report more than $250,000 in gifts and home repairs from the now-defunct oil services company Veco Inc.
Individuals and political action committees can contribute up to $10,000 to the Senate fund. Lobbyists, corporations, foreign nationals and labor unions are barred from making contributions. The fund, which would be managed by a trustee, would file quarterly reports detailing the contributors. Stevens is not allowed to solicit contributions and said Wednesday he won't accept donations until the ethics committee has signed off on creating the fund.
Alaska's Senate race is beginning to look a lot like a very good production of Shakespeare's Richard II.
CO-Sen: VoteVets nails Bob Schaffer to the wall:
KY-Sen: Bruce Lunsford is fighting the good fight against Mitch McConnell. Here he calls McConnell a failure, to his face, in their recent debate:
And here is Lunsford's latest ad:
House Races
MO-09: Though we are still saddened over the humiliating primary loss of GOP candidate Brock Olivo, there's reason to believe the field may be clear for good old Brock to return in 2010.
This is because, according to a recent internal poll, Democrat Judy Baker stands an excellent shot at winning this R+7 seat. From pollster Momentum Analysis:
Baker (D) 41
Luetkemeyer (R) 39
Millay (R) 3
Baker leads 45% to 36% among women voters, the source of a good bit of her strength.
Most notably, Baker enjoys 30% favorable ratings, against just 13% unfavorable. In fact, she enjoys positive favorable ratings even from Republicans, which is truly impressive.
If the poll is accurate, it's serious trouble for Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer. Apparently, his people know it, too:
"Judy Baker’s poll is like a NASCAR driver bragging about being ahead after the first lap of this weekend’s Sharpie 500, which in case Judy didn’t know is a car race enjoyed by ‘those people’ often derided by liberal Democrats like herself," said Luetkemeyer spokesman Paul Sloca in a statement.
Despite Sloca's hysterics, however, it appears that Judy Baker is in fact quite the NASCAR fan:
State Sen. Chuck Graham and state Rep. Judy Baker announced the plans to designate Route WW from Highway 63 to Olivet Road as "Carl Edwards Drive." Graham said he intended to file legislation in the General Assembly today. If passed, Edwards would join former Kansas City Royals star George Brett and former St. Louis Cardinals star Mark McGwire as the only sports figures to have their names affixed to state highways. "So stay away from steroids and subpoenas from Congress," Graham joked.
Ooooooops.
NH-01: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is one of the most endangered Democrats in Congress this cycle, but fortunately for her, her Republican opponents, John Stephen and former Rep. Jeb Bradley, seem intent on tearing each other apart in their primary.
Stephen attacking Bradley:
And Bradley attacking Stephen:
Gotta love Republicans eating their own, especially as Shea-Porter is hitting the airwaves with her own ad.
NY-13: Meanwhile, in the district of disgraced Republican Rep. Vito Fossella, the Democratic primary appears to be Mike McMahon's to lose. McMahon faces 2006 candidate Steve Harrison, and leads by more than 45 points:
McMahon (D) 64
Harrison (D) 18
Given the GOP's well-documented difficulties finding anybody halfway decent to run for the seat, Mike McMahon looks like he's going to Congress.




